"Now, I'm a Harvard graduate," Barack Obama says. And says. And says. In fact, it is the most common thing you hear Barack Obama say, except for the fact that he wants to roll back President Bush's tax cuts. Obama declared for the race very early, insisting that his unusual name -- which has one very significant homophone -- would not be a problem. His mother is white and his father is a Kenyan immigrant, a fact which he discussed at length in his book Dreams from My Father.
Obama is stately and dignified, and has the countenance of an old-style, intellectual senator. Alongside Dick Durbin, he could be a formidable voice for reason and liberalism in the US Senate. Unfortunately, appearances don't necessarily translate. Part of the reason Obama comes across as such a statesman is that he is a bit of a fop and a little self-satisfied, to the point that some who serve alongside him in the Illinois Senate find he is difficult to get along with. More than anything else, this could be a function of his idealism and dedication to social issues. Obama is indeed a Harvard graduate and has a sparkling record of civil rights activism in the legal realm, a fact that many felt would endear him to the black political establishment in Chicago.
However, that does not seem to be the case. Obama's support comes mainly from the East 40s or "Lakefront Liberal" group, although he has picked up some important endorsements which will help in predominately black areas of Cook County. One fact is telling: his fundraising campaign for Illinois State Senate in 1990 was much more successful in white areas than black; 40 percent of his personal donations (of at least $200) came from zip codes that were 70 percent white; only 18 percent came from zip codes that were 70 percent black. Some have argued that Obama's popularity among the Lakefront Liberal crowd will hurt him among black voters, despite endorsements from US Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., US Rep., Danny K. Davis, and State Sen. James T. Meeks.
Obama has two geographic powerbases: Hyde Park and Evanston. Much of Evanston's city council has come out for him, as has popular US Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Pundits who automatically hand Obama "the black vote" are either naïve or completely unaware of the sophistication of Chicago's African-American political establishment. Although Danny K. Davis has come out in strong support of Obama, he is a West Side alderman, an area that traditionally does not provide strong primary votes. Much more important is the South Side, and Obama is hurt by the fact that Bobby Rush, the most popular and powerful black office-holder in Cook County, has not only endorsed Blair Hull but is also serving as the chairman of his election campaign. Not only that, but popular health care activist and Rod Blagojevich ally Joyce Washington will also win a healthy portion of the state-wide black, female, and healthcare industry vote (a big one in Illinois), due in no little part to her energetic campaigning, excellent record in activism and general charisma. Some have speculated that Washington dislikes Obama enough to stay in the race for spite.
Obama's legislative record is not as impressive as it could be, especially for someone who touts himself as such a mover-and-shaker and activist. He did have a major part in reforming the death penalty and insisting on videotaping of confessions in order to preclude police torture, but these measures passed with some difficulty and caused much ire among many Cook County Democrats, who rely on DOC and police department support in their home areas. In the economic realm, Obama's most significant piece of legislation was his sponsoring of an earned income credit to help working families. Obama has also taken very impressive initiatives -- although little has gotten done -- in healthcare, a fact which appealed him to many unionized healthcare workers.
Will Obama have enough momentum going into March to steal the election? Unfortunately, his most likely roll is that of spoiler. But who will he spoil for? Who else, but State Comptroller Dan Hynes. Before Maria Pappas even entered the race, the Hynes camp was concerned about Obama's support by a handful of key unions, including the Illinois Federation of Teachers and the Service Employees International Union, among others. Although his labor support is not strong, it is enough to chip away at Hynes' at a time when it seems like every candidate was designed to wilt some part of Hynes' power base.
The story will become more clear as we get further into January, since that is when the campaigns will really kick off and voters who are polled will have a better sense of who they support. It will be important to note where the polls are taken, however: Obama, because of strong support in Hyde Park, Evanston, and the East 40s, will do disproportionately well in Cook County. However, Pappas' entry into the race more or less killed his chances to carve a significant slice of Cook County and his downstate support is middling at best: by most accounts he is polling third or fourth downstate despite his endorsement by the SEIU and US Rep. Lane Evans (17th district, the north-western border of the state).
Obama's strategy was to take a little bit of the union vote to help him downstate, carry the East 40s, Hyde Park, and Evanston, and win enough of the black vote to give him a healthy plurality in the primary election. Blair Hull's imaginative campaigning downstate has hurt that first effort, and Bobby Rush's endorsement of Hull as well as the presence of Joyce Washington and Gery Chico have hurt that last tactic. His strongest constituency going into the election will be the Lakefront Liberals, but that will serve mainly to hurt Dan Hynes' and Maria Pappas' campaigns.
Would Obama be a good senate candidate? It would be difficult for him to beat a viable Republican candidate, if one of the Republican candidates does prove themselves viable (Steven Rauschenberger and John Borling have the most "senatorial" appeal). His legislative record is solid and his community record is excellent. He is certainly qualified, but his stand-offish personality and hodge-podge of support would make his statewide candidacy questionable.
Just the Facts:
Born: Chicago, Illinois, 1962.
Marital Status: Married
Ethnicity/Race: African-American
Education:
B.A., Political Science, Columbia University
Law Degree, Harvard Law
Employment:
199?-Present, Professor, University of Chicago
1990-Present, Illinois State Senator
Official Website: ObamaForIllinois.com
The Issues:
The Economy: Obama really, really dislikes Bush's tax cuts, which he characterizes in much the same way people characterized Reagan's tax cuts in the 1980s. He is also an advocate of corporate responsibility, offering corporations incentives for investing in distressed areas.
Healthcare: Obama is a major supporter of single-payer, universal healthcare.
Education: Obama, like most of the Democratic candidates, vehemently opposes school vouchers.
Foreign Policy/War on Terror: Obama very stridently opposed the war in Iraq and favors the repeal of the PATRIOT Act.
Abortion: Obama is pro-choice. His advocacy of female reproductive rights is not as impressive as Hynes', but his legislative record does show some initiative.
Affirmative Action/Gay Marriage: Obama is a strong supporter of affirmative action. His stance on gay marriages/civil unions is not clear. He does support equal benefits for "domestic partnerships."
Ramsin / January 14, 2004 2:05 PM
In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I am on the payroll of an organization that has endorsed Barack Obama. No articles that appear in my column are written in that capacity.