The battle for the aldermanship of the 32nd Ward has turned into an insane alliance of established power versus upstart power, a need by the dominant political force in Chicago to stop the effect of yuppification on their power base. One of the unintended side effects of Mayor Daley's passion for development and luring "professionals" to Chicago is that his old base of politically involved (or at least aware) blue collar or working class families has dwindled and dwindled to the point where control of those wards is nearly impossible.

So what happens? Well, Scott Waguespack happens.

Scott Waguespack is a Democratic Party activist who helped orchestrate the recapture of Berwyn by progressive — or at least self-proclaimed "progressive" — forces. Waguespack launched a shoe-leather campaign last year, tirelessly knocking on doors in an effort to unseat incumbent alderman Ted Matlak.

What has ensued has been a bizarre, rough and expensive campaign that has come to include individuals and organizations from all over Chicagoland.

According to the Waguespack campaign, Matlak has been receiving help from Chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party and House Speaker Michael Madigan's vaunted political organization. Mayor Daley has sent considerable help as well. According to Dan Mihalapolous of the Chicago Tribune, a PAC supposedly set up to raise money for candidates for the 1st Congressional District has funneled money to Matlak. One of the largest contributors to that PAC, according to Mihalapolous, was Wal-Mart, who kicked in $100,000.

The campaign between Waguespack and Matlak has become a symbol of the irony of Mayor Daley's "development" policies, which have favored new over old, "professional" over working class and business over homeowners. That ethic has made it difficult for communities to retain their character, but a side effect has been that it has disconnected residents from the political process. That has made them either apathetic or more open to change.

Matlak says that Waguespack has misrepresented himself as a lawyer, and that he has been a disaster as a Village Administrator in Berwyn. Waguespack has countered that Matlak is basically a wholly owned subsidiary of development interests, having accepted $300,000 from developers over the years.

The reality is that Matlak is partially a victim of a political climate in Chicago that has encouraged development over everything else. Partially. But he may have been a pretty willing participant in the process that has so changed the 32nd Ward in just the last four years, not to say the last decade. His constituent services stand in stark contrast to neighboring Alderman Walter Burnett, who has also seen massive changes to his ward over the last few years, but has maintained a sophisticated and dedicated constituent services program.

Matlak has not made those efforts, and the result is that any natural political base has fallen away.

But travel through the 32nd, and it's heavy with Matlak signs. In homes and in business. Most people shrugged off my questions as to why they had it up, so lacking any other evidence, it's fair to say that Matlak's campaign, aided as it is by the Mayor and several neighboring aldermen, is using every advantage incumbency can give a candidate to bulk up their voter universe come next Tuesday.

Polling is too close to call. Waguespack has a serious money disadvantage, and the political machinations behind the scenes are stacking up against him with each passing day.

But aldermanic run-off elections are pretty low turnout. It's one thing to tell a paid canvasser you'll vote for their guy; it's something else to care enough to turnout to cast one vote.

Matlak has to be the prohibitive favorite. But Waguespack is going to win.

2nd Ward
A similar problem faces Madeline Haithcock: the difference is she's not getting the support Matlak is. Challenger Bob Fioretti will win.

24th Ward
Michael Chandler should win easily.

15th Ward
In this open seat, it has come down to community organizer Toni Foulkes and a state employee, Felicia Simmons-Stovall. Simmons-Stovall has been called a tool of the West Side political organizations, who have real tensions with South Siders. She is being funded in some part by Jesse White's 27th Ward Democrats. Foulkes has the more local and sophisticated operation and will be a gem on the Council come April 18th.

21st Ward
Howard Brookins, Jr. has turned the campaign into an "Us versus the Union Bosses" battle which, in the long run, will be bad for the residents of the 21st Ward. The fact of the matter is that no matter how much Brookins tries to lump "the Unions" together, the service unions that are supporting his opponent, Leroy Jones, Jr., have heavy African-American membership and have raised wages and guaranteed benefits for thousands of his constituents. Brookins does get an award for best mailer I've seen so far, with images of the union bosses' homes, and Leroy Jones laid out like a puppet on strings. That won't be enough to beat Jones, though. The momentum is against the incumbent.

49th Ward
Joe Moore was forced into a run-off by a combination of attacks from the left and right. The survivor is to the right of Moore, which won't fly in East Rogers.

50th Ward
Although Bernie Stone's signs are popping up all over the place — including phantom bus benches — talk to some people in the neighborhood and you don't hear much support for him. Still, Stone has every advantage over Dolar except freshness, and that will likely translate to a narrow victory for him. But don't expect his daughter, who may take over for him in the next few years, to survive a Dolar challenge in 2011.