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Airbags

This will be the last RotSC column before the municipal elections next Tuesday. I'll share some of my predictions, and encourage you to leave your own in the comments.

No matter what, you should vote. Find your polling place etc. here.

1st Ward: Manny Flores is unopposed, but he's done some organizing and fundraising — he needs a voter base of his own if he plans on replacing Luis Gutierrez when the incumbent Congressman retires in 2008.

Prediction: Manny Flores 100% of the vote, hipsters comprise 2%.

2nd Ward: Madeline Haithcock's tumultuous career won't end Tuesday, but the engine is sputtering, and that sound is not a low-flying helicopter but a couple flat tires. Nobody will get a majority of the vote, and Haithcock will be forced to go to a run-off in April.

Prediction: Haithcock 40%, Bob Fioretti 29%, Other 31%

3rd Ward: If I could be anywhere on election day, it would be in the Fifteenth Ward; my second choice would be the Third, where I now predict flamboyant alderman Dorothy Tillman will lose outright.

Prediction: Pat Dowell 50.5%, Dorothy Tillman 41%

7th Ward: Mmm, dynasties. Darcel Beavers, daughter of former alderman William Beavers, faces Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s wife Sandi. There will be a swarm of election workers, hilarity will ensue. This will go into a run-off.

Prediction: Sandi Jackson 43%, Darcel Beavers 41%, Other 16%

15th Ward: The rough-and-tumble Fifteenth will feature several organizations sqthuaring off. If you're of the type that enjoys watching shenanigans, head down to Englewood on election day.

Prediction: Toni Foulkes 42%, Denise Dixon 40%, Other 18%

18th Ward: This one is wide-open, so you should give me my propers for even making a prediction.

Prediction: Paul Stewart 37%, Lola Lane 37%, Joseph Ziegler 13%, Other 13%

19th Ward: Ginger Rugai should hold onto this seat, but not without going to a run-off first — she faces a second-time opponent and another cat who's done a decent job organizing.

Prediction: Ginger Rugai 49%, John Somerville 35%, Tim Sheehan 16%

20th Ward: I hope you didn't think the federal indictment on corruption charges would forestall an outright Troutman victory. Not in Chicago.

Prediction: Arenda Troutman 58%, Other 42%

21st Ward: Poor Howard Brookins, Jr. He promised his ward a Wal-Mart and didn't get it — that pissed off his constituents. His efforts to get the Wal-Mart pissed off labor and community groups. He didn't win any love from his fellow alderman for his sloppy efforts to win the Wal-Mart.

Prediction: Leroy Jones, Jr. 45%, Howard Brookins, Jr. 43%, Other 12%

32nd Ward: Sorry, Ted. I'm going out on a limb and predicting incumbent alderman Ted Matlak loses outright, officially taking the 32nd Ward out of the realm of the Regular Democratic Organization's stable of reliable wards.

Prediction: Scott Waguespack 52%, Ted Matlak 47%, Other 1%

34th Ward: It'll be interesting to see what transpires in this far South Side (Pullman, Roseland) ward. I anticipate Carrie Austin will hold onto the seat, but wouldn't be surprised to see a strong performance from her opponents.

Prediction: Carrie Austin 58%, Bernard Kelly 29%, Other 13%

42nd Ward: This is it. One-on-one, no other candidates complicating matters. Burt Natarus and newcomer Brendan Reilly have been going toe-to-toe the last month on the streets, and Natarus has shown some spirit — but has it been enough?

Prediction: Brendan Reilly 52%, Burt Natarus 48%

43rd Ward: This ward is simply too high-turnover and low-turnout for a challenger to win, in my opinion.

Prediction: Vi Daley 54%, Tim Egan 34%, Michelle Smith 9%, Other 3%

46th Ward: I'm almost afraid of making a prediction, lest I draw the ire of the wild-eyed political junkies of the 46th Ward. Still, I must. Helen Shiller is on her way out — but not yet.

Prediction: Helen Shiller 53%, James Cappleman 47%

49th Ward: Here it is, the mother of all fights, after the 15th. And the Third. Well, you know what I mean. People who don't like incumbent liberal firebrand Joe Moore really don't like him. And he has a long list of opponents, a couple of whom have fought well. Still, this is a municipal election. And he is an incumbent. And this is East Rogers Park.

Prediction: Joe Moore 52%, Jim Ginderske 30%, Don Gordon 15%, Chris Adams 3%

50th Ward: Actually, in retrospect, given the huge diversity of people, incomes and ideologies in this ward, and given the aggressive tactics of incumbent alderman Bernie Stone's political operation, this may be the place to be on Tuesday.

Prediction: Berny Stone 34%, Naisy Dolar 32%, Greg Brewer 30%, Salman Aftab 4%

City Clerk: Miguel Del Valle has an oddly sophisticated city-wide campaign organization, which suggests he sees himself replacing the Mayor in four years. He will win handily.

Prediction: Miguel Del Valle 82%, Jose Cerda 18%

Mayor: The big one! The Mayor's race! Ooh, this will be hot! Somebody may crack double digits against Mayor Daley!

Prediction: Richard M. Daley 74%, Dorothy Brown 18%, Dock Walls 8%

Your predictions, quantitative or otherwise?

Comments

JP Paulus / February 21, 2007 9:42 AM

What do you think is holdingback the opposition to Shiller from finally winning?

Too much of something?

Too little of something else?

amyc / February 21, 2007 9:51 AM

Man, I hope you're right about the 32nd. I would love to see Matlak given the boot (the boot will then be torn down to make room for 12 "luxury" condos on one lot).

Thomas Westgard / February 21, 2007 9:59 AM

Thanks for the analysis of the 49th. I'm a little confused by the "liberal firebrand" label on someone who supported Stroger in the primary, though.

irishpirate / February 21, 2007 10:00 AM

JP,

he made a prediction. It ain't gonna happen.

I have a prediction on the 46th ward race. It involves you crying that night.

Cappleman 58 Shiller 42.

Veritable landslide.

Craig Gernhardt / February 21, 2007 10:22 AM

In the 49th ward we'll see the real results next Tuesday, I'd bet $100 they look nothing like Richard's predictions.

Still, it was fun reading.

vit / February 21, 2007 5:22 PM

your prediction for the 1st ward (mine) is spot on. It is an election that I will vote in, but then wonder why I bothered.

jerry 101 / February 21, 2007 5:24 PM

Considering the non-stop phone calls I've been getting from the Matlak campaign (which prompted an angry email from me), I have a feeling that a lot of other 32nd warders might be pissed too. 3 or 4 robo calls a day piss people off.

I hope you're right about the 32nd.

morrisonjl / February 21, 2007 6:53 PM

here goes the real deal:

Sandi Jackson wins outright in the 7th Ward...easily. Bet the house on it. You got the 15th Ward just about right but it will be Stovall in the Run-off with Foulkes not Denise Dixon. Foulkes has an outside chance to win next Tuesday without a runoff though. Matlak wins outright in the 32nd Ward. It won't even be close buddy. Where do you get your info. It is incredibly weak. Joe Moore will win biggr than you predict in the 49th Ward and you have called it just about perfectly in the 50th Ward...the sun shines on a dog's butt every once in a while. The important races are the ones you don't dare to make a prediction for. In the 16th Ward, Shirley Coleman will be defeated outright by JoAnn Thompson. George Cardenas willl beat Carina Sanchez in the 12th Ward and Danny Solis in the 25th Ward will be forced to a runoff. How about a gentleman's bet? A week of your salary versus a week of mine. Trust me, this is a very good deal for you. Pick up the gauntlet if you dare. Bye, Bye. Big Mo

morrisonjl / February 21, 2007 6:59 PM

Oh yah, you have the outcome right in the 43rd Ward but the order is all wrong. Michelle Smith will finish second and come very close to a runoff falling just short. Wake up brother.

Campaign worker / February 21, 2007 8:54 PM

I suggest you review the link below before making predictions. Really helps to have all the candidates if you are picking percentages.

http://www.chicagoelections.com/docs/2007CandidateListForWeb012007.pdf

Andrew / February 21, 2007 9:20 PM

Campaign worker, do you have a beef about a particular race? Which one's yours?

Stone Cold Northsider / February 21, 2007 9:22 PM

Joe Moore's competition was too little too late in the 49th, and one of them just hosted a conference with many neo-cons in attendance, which won't play well in this foie-gras-free town.

Interesting prediction in the 50th, it's certainly getting hot up there -- somebody sent Bernie hate mail (himself?) and I heard the Brewer office was cleared due to a bomb threat today (unconfirmed report). I think the percentages will depend on turnout -- higher is better for all the challengers, and I wish them all luck in rolling Stone out of his seat. My guess is +/- 10,000 votes: Stone 38%, Brewer 31%, Dolar 26%, Aftab 5%

DolarWillDoIt / February 21, 2007 11:58 PM

GapersBlock, I think you're closer to the mark than Stone Cold. Everything about Stone Cold's post suggests that he is a Brewer supporter trying to drum up a few votes for the guy.

Brewer is getting nervous about Naisy Dolar because she is the candidate who has the most momentum--the Tribune and the Sun-Times both endorsed her this week!

jerry 101 / February 22, 2007 11:48 AM

stone cold, head over to Rich Miller's thecapitolfaxblog.com (no www.), one of Brewers volunteers has a first hand account (she took the phone call).

they have some other fun election news, too. Like Doherty's drinkng and driving problem, and some other idiocy/lunacy

Jocelyn / February 22, 2007 7:49 PM

I'm not so sure about those 49th Ward predictions either.

Richard F Carnahan / February 22, 2007 10:24 PM

So what do you guys think? I will probably be wrong a lot, but I'd love to see your predictions!

irishpirate / February 23, 2007 2:20 PM

Richard,

here are my predictions for the races I have some knowledge about.

46th Cappleman

49th Runoff Moore/?

50th Runoff Stone/Brewer

Then Reilly trounces Natarus and Matlak gets defeated by Wags.....whatever his name is.

Rugai in a runoff in da 19th against Somerville likely maybe Sheehan

Beavers beats Jackson.......although I woundn't bet much on that.

There will likely be other incumbent losses. I just don't know enough to venture a guess on where.

anthony / February 23, 2007 8:03 PM

Rich,
Seems your getting caught up in all the media hype about a big aldermanic turnover. Nobody cares about these races. Its going to be cold, the top-of-the-ticket races are already decided. Natarus, Vi Daley, Matlack and Austin will win outright. Solis, Beavers, Stone, Rugai and Cardenas will win in run-offs with even lower turnouts. Haithcock and Tillman are tought to call. I'll say the "Hat" sneaks by, while Fioretti steals the 2nd. Brookins and Troutman should be shot!

Jocelyn / February 23, 2007 8:04 PM

Okay, I'll play. Joe only got 55% last time with little competition- no real campaigns.

Conservatively...

Joe Moore 40%
Gordon 30%
Ginderske 20 %
Adams 10 %

but you never know, we could have an upset...

Joe Moore 24%
Gordon 33%
Ginderske 33%
Adams 10 %

Now THAT would be exciting. A girl's gotta dream.

nbc5speaksforme / February 23, 2007 8:51 PM

-snip-
Of all the challengers, political insiders said, Dolar was thought to have the best chance to beat Stone (50th), Ahern reported.
-snip-

http://www.nbc5.com/politics/11097460/detail.html

Delighted 2 hear Dolar has best chance to beat sleeping Bernie Stone / February 23, 2007 11:34 PM

Thanks, nbc5speaksforme, for the link. Dolar's campaign is on fire--the Trib endorses her, the Sun-Times endorses her, articles in Time Out Chicago, Windy City Times.......Please join me in punching #52 for Naisy Dolar in the 50th ward on Tuesday.

Andrew / February 24, 2007 2:31 PM

You know, the only evidence I've seen of Brewer even being in the race in the 50th has been the literally dozen fancy flyers I got in the mail over the past two days. I even got a "formal invitation" from some people I'd never heard of, "inviting" me to vote for Brewer.

In contrast, Naisy Dolar showed up at my front door months ago, and I've heard from several friends in the ward that they've met her too. I see signs for her all over the place (not as many as for Stone, but that's another matter). Hell, I see signs for Aftab more than for Brewer. Either Brewer doesn't care at all about the southeast region of the 50th, or he doesn't have the support some people claim.

chicagomom / February 24, 2007 7:44 PM

It is obvious you do not live in the 3rd ward. The people that LIVE here love the current alderman and really resent the outside people knocking on our doors telling us what and who is good for us. Know one knows Dowell and her smear campaign is backfiring. Tillman 60% Mell and Pat will split 35%
the other two will split the remainder. I know you haven;t been in our neck of the woods lately...it is 100 times better since Tillman has been in office. I grew up here and my grandparents has own their home for over 40 years..Dowell can't even ring my nanna's bell. People on the street feels she is an agent for the University of Chicago and they are afraid she trying to do to our neighborhood like they did to Woodlawn. So you should talk to the people in 3rd ward and not the media or propaganda. Last note...The union has NO PULL in the Black community. We all know how racist the union is. On the 28th you will realize that you are no expert on Black Politics. Tillman is a hero and she will not lose in BLACK HISTORY MONTH.

Civil / February 27, 2007 11:06 AM

Rich,

So you think there's gonna be a runoff in the 50th (I kinda agree)...but who do you predict will win the runoff?

irishpirate / February 28, 2007 10:31 AM

Hmmm,

on second thought ignore my predictions. I was right on Natarus and Moore........sorta right on Stone........wrong on everything else.

Da Jackson's stomped da House of Beaver.......

At least Natarus and Troutman lost.

 

About the Author(s)

Richard F. Carnahan is a true South Side Sox fan who's played a bit part in Chicago politics more than once over the years. Contact him at rfc@gapersblock.com.

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