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IL10 Race Wed Jul 22 2009
Swing State Project on IL-10
Swing State Project takes a look at the race for what will be Mark Kirk's open seat in the north suburban 10th Congressional District. Here's their rundown of the GOP field as it stands:
- Businessman Dick Green, CEO of Briefing.com
- Businessman Bill Strong, former Illinois finance chairman for John McCain's Presidential campaign
- State Rep. Ed Sullivan
- Businesswoman/ex-Mount Prospect mayoral candidate Patricia Bird
- Lake County Board Member Ann Maine
- Wilmette Village President Chris Canning
- State Rep. Beth Coulson
They also note that Dan Seals, who lost to Kirk in two consecutive cycles, is in the race. Given that Seals underperformed President Obama in the 10th District by almost 10 points, I wonder if he is the best candidate. Were people just that enamored with Kirk, or did he hit his limit with support? A similar problem arose for Christine Cegelis in the 6th Congressional District; after losing a spirited campaign to Henry Hyde in 2004. Supporters of Tammy Duckworth, who was drafted to run in the open seat in '06, pointed out that Cegelis, while scoring nearly 45% against the aging Hyde, still under-performed Kerry in the district by 2%.
Seals' losing thousands of Obama voters could be worrisome to Democrats eager to finally take a seat that voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee at nearly a 2/3rds clip in 2008. But the entire calculus has to change without Kirk in the race; not only was Kirk particularly popular with independents, but Seals was buoyed by netroots and grassroots desire to take a blue seat away from a Republican incumbent. As an open seat, that could dissipate.
J Stone / July 22, 2009 3:19 PM
Kirk for Senate!!