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The Mechanics
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IL-SEN Tue Nov 10 2009

Doubtful Illinois Will Go Red In 2010

Politico lists Illinois as one of a ten states that could lose a Senate seat to the opposition party in 2010:

While Democrats failed in their efforts to woo state Attorney General Lisa Madigan into the race, Republicans scored a major recruiting coup when they signed up Rep. Mark Kirk, a mammoth fundraiser known for his success in holding a tough suburban Chicago House seat. Both sides agree that Kirk will make the race for a Democratic seat competitive. Democrats, meanwhile, have struggled to find a candidate they are comfortable with -- state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has emerged as the front-runner in the Democratic primary field, though his background in banking may provide fodder for opponents.

I have to say that sounds...plainly...false to me. There are some states where President Obama's coattails aren't long enough to cover the Democrats in the Senate and the House, and even though Illinois politics is famous for corruption (often among Democrats) there's no way Mark Kirk who --is a moderate candidate only because every once in a while he'll say something on, say diplomacy, or Sarah Palin, that doesn't quite match up with the party line or the Democrats-- will gather enough support to take Burris's Senate seat.

It's true that Alexi Giannoulias does have some questionable business ties, but they're hardly enough to take him down IF he gets the nomination--and I'm not convinced he will. It's still early and there's no reason to say Hoffman is out just yet.

(crossposted)

 
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