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Chicago Fri Jan 08 2010

Rahm Emanuel For Mayor Says More About Daley

So Rahm Emanuel isn't interested in running for Mayor of Chicago. No reason to stop the presses, it isn't a big surprise. But I, at least, raised my eyebrows when I saw this Chicago Current poll:

Now, this is just an online poll at a niche publication. It's probably less accurate than a poll put in the field by, say, PPP polling or Gallup. At the same time, the support among people who do read the Current, people who are very interested in Chicago politics, does suggest something about Daley as a mayor. The Current readers pay a fair amount of attention to what's going on in City Hall. If they don't like Daley that means his actual performance --not just the shallow stuff-- is pretty bad.

(Crossposted)

UPDATE: There's been some headscratching over what I'm trying to say in this post. Apologies. Here's my point: Rahm Emmanuel hasn't shown any interest in running for Mayor of Chicago but these polls still exist and they aren't terribly discouraging for the White House Chief of Staff. Thus the fact that people are conceiving of an Emmanuel campaign for mayor shows, I think, also how unpopular Daley is currently. If Daley were somewhat or really popular there wouldn't be this dreaming of a mayoral run by a politician who has a reasonably good reputation within Democratic party and is from Chicago . Emmanuel hasn't shown any interest in the mayor job but people are so dissatisfied with Daley that polls like this exist. I apologize for the lack of clarity.

 
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Chris T / January 9, 2010 1:16 PM

I don't understand what you are trying to convey?

Daniel / January 9, 2010 1:19 PM

To very politically conscious Chicagoans, Daley is doing a bad job. It's not just the perception of those who don't pay attention to politics.

Chris T / January 9, 2010 6:54 PM

Understandable, but how do you gauge that from this poll? Just by its existence?

Daniel / January 9, 2010 11:10 PM

By the fact that there's so much popularity for someone who hasn't even expressed any interest in running and, to be honest, doesn't have an amazing record as a national politician (though a very good one).
Look, the point is that even though the Obama Administration's popularity is plummeting, politically savvy Chicagoans would still have someone from Washington and who isn't a Daley running the city. As this poll shows, they know it could be worse (Daley) even though Emmanuel's performance as a Chicago pol wasn't stellar.

David Goldberg / January 10, 2010 7:16 PM

I have no idea how you can say these poll results are bad for Daley. It looks like the results are horrible for Rahm and great for Daley. Only 11% of the people think Rahm would do a great job, while 89% think Rahm would either be worse or should stay in DC.
Daniel, just curious, could you please provide your educational background and work experience.

Daniel / January 10, 2010 7:39 PM

Mr. Goldberg*

I think you're misinterpreting the poll. "Could be worse" is not meant to mean that Rahm Emmanuel "could be worse" it's supposed to be the situation could be worse than Rahm Emmanuel as mayor so your intepretation, actually, is the incorrect one.

The results aren't terribly bad for Rahm and they aren't great for Daley. If they were great for Daley, the stick to the White House option would have many more votes because if the mayor were popular, people would be paying more attention to Emmanuel's legislative background (which is not to say they aren't here but there would be less to gripe about with Daley). Here though, when you compare Emmanuel's record to Daley's, the popularity is still with Emmanuel to some degree which leads me to my next point: did you actually read this poll or just go straight to criticism mode? If you had been paying attention to the news at all you'd know that Daley is polling horribly right now —I believe the worst numbers he's ever had— that's why speculative polls like this exist.

But I digress. "He'd do a horrible job" is the only real negative option. "Could be worse" and "Great job" are positive to some degree. You can look at the poll your way (ahem, incorrectly) or you can look at it the correct way. The latter way shows that 61% of everyone polled have a somewhat positive opinion of a Emmanuel Administration. Consider that alongside Daley's poor popularity right now and it's easy to see that Daley is in trouble. The reason this is true is because, as I should have said in the post, Emmanuel doesn't have the most stellar history as a Congressman (I'm being a bit hard on him here but that stands). If Chicagoans want a somewhat mediocre politician to run Chicago instead of Daley, that means Daley isn't doing a good job.

*I'm referring to you as Mr.Goldberg to retain some sense of civility, which you obviously don't believe in by asking for my "job and educational background." Word of advice, you're less likely to be dubbed a troll on the web if you are polite, even in disagreements. :) cheers.

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