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IL-GOV Wed Jan 20 2010
The Interesting Math Related To The GOP Primary for Governor.
Normally in a primary within the GOP we will have one 'mainstream' candidate and one or more conservative candidates often more than one that split the conservative vote. Normally this leads to the mainstream candidate winning the primary.
There have been exceptions to this rule Al Salvi and Pete Fitzgerald come to mind.
However this time it's a bit different. We have several candidates I would consider for the most part 'establishment', no matter how hard they may try to demonstrate otherwise. McKenna, Ryan, Dillard, Shillerstrom and to some extent Brady would all fall under the establishment banner.
Only Proft and Andrzejewski can really be seen as the 'outsider' conservative candidates.
So, I am starting to think that Proft and/or Andrzejewski might have a chance to pull this off.
Why, well you are going to hear a lot about polling numbers for the 'mainstream' candidate (Mckenna in particular). I think all of the 'mainstream' candidates are going to split about 60% of the vote, leaving about 40% of the vote in play for Proft and Andrzejewski. Normally with one mainstream candidate the 60% is more than enough for a convincing win, however with 4 or 5 mainstream candidates that is no longer the case.
But do you know anyone who is going to make a real effort to go out on a cold February day to vote for Andy McKenna? Jim Ryan? I know I don't. Not saying I haven't encountered people who support those candidates, but no one who is highly motivate to vote for their guy.
Howevhe folks who are going to go vote for Proft and Andrzejewski are going to be highly motivated (Illinois GOP primary voters who vote for 'outsiders' usually are) and are going to vote reguardless of weather or anything else that might get in the way. With 20 or 30% of the vote, you might be able to win the primary. You might be able to pull that off with an effective media buy in the last week.
So be ready for a late night on primary day...
