The results of Chicago's elections, likely the last election of the Daley the Second regime, are in and the initial indication is that the city's labor unions have proven they are the mightiest organizing machines in the city. No political organization — whether the Regular Democratic Organization, the Hispanic Democratic Organization or any number of individual candidate organizations, could match what labor did.
I don't necessarily buy that — especially given all the chest-thumping some union officials engaged in last year — but that this was a landmark election is unquestionable.
I know this is bad form, but man oh man did I take pleasure in getting the spread in the Cappelman-Shiller fight in the 46th Ward right on the nose. So many people were talking so much trash about my supposed incompetence that it felt really good to be oh so right and they be oh so wrong. That said, Cappelman was a great candidate and although I also respect Helen Shiller, he would've been a good change for the ward. Frankly, his campaign was weighed down by an early negativity toward Shiller that almost immediately polarized the race — middle of the road voters are turned off by early negativity on a mildly popular incumbent, because it implies that if they don't hate the incumbent, they're fools, and given Shiller's fundraising and organizational advantage, that spelled doom for her opponent. (I know I'm not supposed gloat, be humble and all that, but whatever. Ha ha, I was right).
On the other hand, I got several races embarrassingly wrong (how about my prediction for the City Clerk's race? Yikes) so at the end of the day it all equals out.
Speaking in terms of surprises, Brendan Reilly's victory over Burton Natarus has been way overblown. Natarus was a highly vulnerable candidate, and as soon as the field was definitively narrowed to two, I had no doubt that Natarus would lose. Here's a guy who's been in a high-turnover, wealthy ward for over 30 years and never been able to crack 56 percent. It was only a matter of time, and given Reilly's prodigious ability to raise money and pitch-perfect campaign message, Natarus was toast. Monetary contributions notwithstanding — labor makes big money donations to candidates every cycle — this victory had everything to do with Natarus's incompetence and Reilly's skilled campaigning. Think about Reilly: a young, charismatic campaigner who now has as his political fundraising base the businesses center of one of the wealthiest cities on Earth. Look for this guy to make noise in Illinois and national Democratic Party politics, and if you're that kind of person, hitch your wagon to his star.
Similarly, Scott Waguespack's campaign, although benefiting from financial contributions, was all about Waguespack's early door-to-door campaigning and a somewhat unpopular incumbent to go with a high-turnover ward (which weakens the incumbent relative to low-turnover ward incumbents). The city's unions have huge membership in the residential areas, but not in places like the 32nd anymore. Bucktown and West Lakeview especially don't have many SEIU and UFCW members, who tend to be lower-middle and lower-income. I was surprised that Scott didn't win outright, but I was more surprised when the third candidate in that race, Catherine Czarnyny, decided to endorse Matlak over Waguespack. Given the campaign rhetoric — "The Ward Needs Change" — that move is wholly illogical. If Czarnyny is making a political calculation, for example that Waguespack would be harder to beat in four years than a barely-clinging-to-elective-life Matlak, then that is a cynical move that would prove difficult to get past in any future run.
The Sandi Jackson-Darcel Beavers race in the far South Side 7th Ward defied my expectations when Jackson won in a relative blowout. So much for former Alderman and current County Commissioner William Beavers' dynasty-building gambit. The Jackson family name and organization was simply too sophisticated and too brutal for a more homespun effort to handle. Still, by all accounts Darcel Beavers is a hard worker and affable, so it's hard to be too excited here.
Where labor had a definitive impact was in the wide-open 15th Ward, where eminently likable community activist and UFCW member Toni Foulkes came in first in the voting with a commanding 35 percent of the vote. Foulkes' campaign was almost completely funded by SEIU and UFCW, and her campaign personnel were essentially union staffers. However, the on-the-ground effort is more attributable to the tireless organizing of Chicago ACORN, one of the largest and most effective ACORN chapters in the nation. Englewood is ACORN's base and they can activate a very large organization there almost immediately. Foulkes, who works at a Jewel-Osco bakery and has been organizing around living wage, poverty, predatory lending and fair housing issues for years in her home neighborhood of Englewood, is smart, charismatic and would be a jewel in the City Council. ACORN was somewhat burned by the last candidate they sponsored, retired alderman Ted Thomas, who steadily drifted away from the progressive line on many issues and sided with Mayor Daley. Anything is possible, but talk to Toni Foulkes and you can see the passion for social justice in her eyes and the timbre of her voice.
Similarly, Alderman Howard Brookins, Jr. suffered in the face of labor's efforts, although even he was able to avoid an outright loss and still has a chance to hold on. Considering Brookins helped spark the labor-council war with his efforts to bring a Wal-Mart to his ward, that he was able secure a run-off where he has an even chance of pulling it out is telling. Alderman Emma Mitts, labor's archnemesis, won handily with no labor-backed candidate in her ward.
And what happened to the labor tidal wave in the 49th Ward? Joe Moore, who put his name and neck on the line by writing and leading the fight for the Big Box Living Wage Ordinance, was narrowly forced into a run-off despite outspending his opponents. That Moore should have been forsaken is inexcusable in a very winnable race. To be an electoral power you can't just pick off weak incumbents, you have to defend your allies when they're in trouble, too. Moore should win the run-off easily, but the added expense of both money and political capital will damage his effectiveness in the Council and the Ward. For such a staunch ally, that's unfortunate.
Similarly, unions poured enormous cash and resources against George Cardenas in the TKth Ward only to see him score 60 percent of the vote against several challengers, including their chosen candidate Carina Sanchez.
So, it wasn't a labor blowout by any means — and relative to some of the bold predictions some union officials were making as late as October and November of last year, it was disappointing. That doesn't demean the enormous effort expended by union staff and membership on the streets. They were out in force, showing many of the Democratic Regulars what real organizing is. The show of force certainly put real fear into the hearts of many aldermen, and that, ultimately, was the point. By the same token, even in some races where all the stops were pulled, even marginally popular incumbents were able to beat back assaults and live to fight another day.
NEXT WEEK: Richard M. Daley, His Elective Majesty
laborpol / March 7, 2007 10:11 PM
After the miserable predictions you made you actually have the nuts to write that labor didn't accomplish much Tuesday?
You must be kidding me. Open your eyes buddy. This is the most run-offs in the history of chicago politics. None of this would have been possible without labor support and workers.
Labor only lost one race and that was in the 12th ward with a young, novice candidate in a very low turnout community. Whether labor was the deciding factor in each and everyone of these races is not the point.
What matters is that labor put enough races in play to stretch the resources of the Mayor giving strong grassroots candidates like Scott Wags in the 32nd ward and Naisy Doalr in the 50th ward a chance to get to runoffs.
And what about the 3rd ward where Pat Dowell will be taking Dorothy "the hat" Tillman to a runoff . Pat ran against Tillamnin 2003 and missed a runoff by a considerable bit. Don't you think labor might have made the difference there?
What about the 15th, 16th and 21st wards that will all feature runoffs with rank and file union members? Do ya think labor had an impact on those races?
As far as not beating incumbents outright. Even Bob Fioretti who spent nearly $500,000 against incumbent Madeline Haithcock will be going to a runoff. The power of incumbency is enourmous but most of the alderman who are in runoffs will be defeated. Look at past results. 75% of incumbents that are taken to runoffs lose.
And as far as Sandi Jackson and Brendan Riley go just ask them if they think labor played a role in their impressive victories. Riley just returned from the Winter meeting of the AFL-CIO in Las Vegas where he layed out his pro labor agenda and pledged his support for the working men and women of Chicago.
For the first time in a very long time there is a power other than Mayor Daley for aldermen to go to and thankfully that power is represented by the labor movement.
It is clear you are not much more than a casual observer of politics. True political professionals know what happend last Tuesday and are impressed by labor's effort. Also, realize that this is the first time labor has participated in the aldermanic elections in any meaningful way.
Imagine what we can do once we get this experience under our belts.
Wake up and smell the coffee brother. Ther is a new sheriff in town and his name is organized labor.