Rumors are going around that Todd Stroger's petition signatures are so fraught with error that he could lose his place on the primary ballot.
With news of Danny Davis dropping out today (assuming he would stay dropped out should the remarkable happen and Stroger actually get knocked off the ballot), that could potentially boil the race down to Hyde Park Alderman Toni Preckwinkle, Cook County Courts Clerk Dorothy Brown, and Water Reclamation District Chair Terry O'Brien.
Preckwinkle got the top position on the ballot. If Stroger is knocked out, Preckwinkle would have to be the frontrunner for the job, particularly if the Mayor is in fact going to lend her outright or behind the scenes support (as has been supposed). While Brown gets elected County-wide (with little challenge) and O'Brien is the sole white dude, Alderman Preckwinkle has the "independent" credibility with none of O'Brien's contractor problems.
Should Stroger get knocked out--and really, this would be a bombshell--I think Toni Preckwinkle has to be considered the prohibitive favorite. The question would be--behind whom would the Stroger organization line up? And would Davis jump back in (that's a timing issue, as well)?
Interesting stuff--personally, I thought Preckwinkle was the favorite since the mysterious timing of the Community Benefits Agreement on the Olympics/Announcement for Board Presidency/Sneed rumor about Daley support for Preckwinkle stuff. She has the right mix of smarts, reformist appeal to contrast with Stroger with the advantage of still having connections to heavy hitter pols and appealing to parts of the South Side African-American primary electorate.
UPDATE: Thanks commenters! I can't believe its already the 9th. Indeed, today, not next Monday, was the deadline for withdrawal. Davis is out for good.
Danny Davis will announce this morning that he would seek reelection for his 7th District Congressional seat. Davis' announcement didn't come with any endorsement, but he did say that at least part of his reasoning was not wanting to split the black vote among four black challengers.
The Cook County Board stamped out video gaming in Cook County, essentially invalidating Governor Quinn's $31bn capital projects budget, to be financed by video gaming taxes.
Ray Hanania of WJJG-AM and Southwest News-Herald (and long time City Hall reporter) has an interesting piece on just what might be behind the move (Bridget Gainer replaced Mike Quigley):
The Bridget Gainer rush to reinforce Cook County's questionable ban on video gaming machines raises some real questions.
Who is really behind the effort?
Casino lobbyists -- including one Cook County board member and several who have received Casino industry related donations -- want the video gaming measure killed but buried before the public can understand the issues.
Here are some facts:
A-Local Villages should have the power to decide on their own whether or not they should be able to permit video gaming in their communities. Why should Gainer, a former executive at the politically connected insurance giant AON, and the Cook County Board decide that for them?
Video Gaming could generate, through licensing options, as much as $500,000 a year for suburban communities. Each establishment could install 5 machines, and licensing costs would be about $5,000 a year. And each village could see as many as 15-20 establishments installing the devices.
B-Right now, there are about 60,000 illegal video gaming devices being managed by organized crime and independents who are breaking the law. These machines exist but the county is incapable of cracking down on them. The way to undermine the illegal criminal activity is to put the reality under legal parameters and bring them out into the sunshine.
Much ink has been spilled regarding the failure of the Cook County Board yet again to override a Todd Stroger veto of a County sales tax rollback. Stroger's instransigence on the rollback is being cited as a reason he can't win in the suburbs. Others have argued that it plays well with his base on the South Side. The onerous veto over-ride majority needed--fourteen votes--has allowed Stroger to repeatedly battle off efforts to get ride of the increase passed last year.
Diarist BoredNow of Prairie State Blue opines on whether Commissioner Deborah Sims, who had earlier stated she would vote to override the veto, will have trouble in her reelection bid due to her reversal and vote to uphold the veto. Sims has a considerable suburban vote in her district.
On the other hand, there's a real possibility that both Sims and Murphy could be outspent in this election cycle. Neither one had much cash on hand in the last report, and both are aware that they face an angry electorate. Conventional wisdom down in the Southland is that neither Sims nor Murphy will get the endorsements of the newspapers. While the unions are generally expected to endorse the incumbents, unless they import workers into the South Suburbs it's hard to imagine that this will have much effect. Local AFSCME members say they expect their union to support Sims and Murphy, but they say they won't vote with their union leadership. They may feel differently if the union has an actual presence down here -- especially if they have to walk by a union member to enter the polls.
Outgoing Alderman Billy Ocasio, who left to work for Governor Quinn, originally wanted accused homophobe Wilfredo de Jesus to replace him; he reneged on that and then the word was he wanted his wife to replace him. Mayor Daley decided to appoint popular Cook County Commissioner Roberto Maldonado to replace him, meaning now there will be a vacancy on the Cook County Board. Yay!
Here's an endearing little video of Roberto Maldonado, so that we can like him a little bit before he votes for the Mayor's plan to privatize Lake Michigan or smiles or whatever:
My sense is that Mayor Daley and his brother John, who is also the 11th Ward Committeeman, are giving up Todd Stroger. The County, exempt as it is from Shakman, is simply too valuable to the County Party. If Republicans become viable at the County level again, a vital pillar in the institutionalized party will essentially crumble out from beneath them. Stroger never really had a shot, to be fair. The nature of his ascension to the office was disapproved of by almost every neutral observer, and the dishonesty or dissimulation with which his father's illness was handled left much of the media and more tuned-in voters with a bad taste in their mouth. Since then, he has been assailed for everything, culminating in the scandal revolving around Tony Cole.
Whatever Stroger's position is with the Daleys (and the word on the street is very much that he won't receive any meaningful support), this lawsuit by the Better Government Association can't b good news, as it keeps the Cole story in the news just as other candidates are lining up to challenge him. "Cell phone records" has got to be a scary phrase for a politician to hear, particularly after former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's disastrous text messages were revealed.
From STNG:
Andy Shaw, the BGA's executive director, said questions about the scandal have largely gone unanswered, making him question whether the Cole scandal unfolded during business hours and at taxpayers expense. The cellphone records could be a window in to that.
"This was one of the most tawdry embarrassing and scandalous episodes of the Stroger administration -- the hiring of an ex-convict, promotions twice to different jobs in the county -- even after he's bailed out of jail by the CFO," Shaw said.
But those requests have been denied by the Stroger administration.
"We asked the Stroger administration to give us the cell phone numbers, just to see how much taxpayer time is being spent on this embarrassment. We don't know what we're going to find. We're not a judge and jury. But we wanted to find out what's going on," Shaw said. "Transparency demands we have access to the activity of government," he said.
Alderman Toni Preckwinkle (Hyde Park) has launched a website in support of her campaign for Cook County Board President. A primary poll done by SEIU back in April--before, it should be noted, the sales tax veto issue--had current Commissioner Forrest Claypool leading incumbent Todd Stroger and Preckwinkle 28-23-18. "Preckwinkle" isn't the most voter-friendly name; I wonder if they'll come up with some kind of witty slogan to help people remember it. (Or do something like they did for Blagojevich's campaign, have people mangling it in a commercial to make light of it). "Preck for Prez" doesn't really roll off the tongue.
Looking at that SEIU poll, it should worry Stroger that Preckwinkle performs nearly as well among black voters as he does. Claypool, though he cleaned up in many of the North Side wards east of the river, couldn't handle the enormous disparities in black-majority wards. Without those huge majorities, Stroger is done for. He will have trouble collecting votes in many of the north, west, and south west suburban townships, and if Preckwinkle performs this well among black voters, it's curtains.
The questions is--can Alderman Preckwinkle take enough votes in the lakefront liberal and inner-ring suburban townships (where she is better known and where her relationship to the city's "progressive" establishment will play) to keep Claypool from sailing in on his existing support on the North and Northwest Sides? I'm sure Russ Stewart will have a hyper-specific breakdown of this at some point, if he hasn't already.
Progress Illinois has a good piece about the potential replacement for Mike Quigley on the County Board, and promise to report on the meeting, which will take place tomorrow morning.
Walz is apparently a "policy wonk" and "detail person"--but did they know she was also "Benefit Posie Gal 1"? Remember, Committeemen, poise counts!
Three suburban towns want to secede from Cook County and Todd Stroger County Board President seeks to dispell notions that are cited as reasons they want to leave Cook County. Of course he said in this segment on FOX 32 that he wouldn't oppose them if they'd leave although they would miss out on certain services provided by Cook County.
You know, I've seen clips or heard audio of Stroger on the stump and the attempts were less than impressive, but I'll have to admit that I'd rather see him in action or sitting down in interviews like he does here. It's better that than being out of your element giving a stump speech. Of course he might have to give some as he says he's running for re-election. He really should invest in an oratory coach or something.
WOW! The anchors here were incredulous when he even said that he doesn't know how much money he has raised. Although at least he covered himself by saying that he's raising money all the time.
County Board President Todd Stroger's campaign committee recently sent out a fundraising email that had a bit of a mixed message:
John Stroger strongly believed that "A voteless people is a hopeless people." His son Todd needs your help to fight political opportunism, preserve vital services and continue his father's legacy of service for all residents. Please support Todd by contributing to "A New Generation of Leadership."
While Todd is technically a new generation of leadership in comparison to his father's generation, it is hard to see how Todd Stroger's board presidency is anything but a continuation of his father's political organization and governing philosophy. Now, you may like that or dislike it, but to send a fundraising letter that both dons the aura of John Stroger's political prowess and proclaims a "new generation" of political leadership at the County level shows a serious problem for Todd Stroger: in a period where voters are demanding to flush the political system of old blood and bring in serious, if not radical, change, how do you make a pitch for a guy named Stroger?
Particularly when stories like this are constantly appearing, like a sepsis that can't be controlled:
The Cook County Health and Hospital Board Friday approved an $868,000 security contract, even though it was roughly $30,000 more than the lowest bid.
Whitfield Security Service was chosen over the lowest bidder, Moore Security Service, administrators said, because Moore did not meet prevailing wage requirements. However, administrators have yet to specify exactly how Moore failed, even though the Daily Herald has been asking for details on the disqualification since at least Wednesday. Earlier, administrators had disqualified Moore on the allegation that the company did not meet minority business requirements, even though Moore is owned by a black woman. The county later admitted its error, but still maintains the company doesn't meet prevailing wage requirements, even though it was initially reviewed for that category and found to meet standards.
For the second time in two months, Cook County government today is poised to pass up the lowest bid on a security contract.
In both cases, the contract was given or is being given to Whitfield Security System over Moore Security, under allegations that Moore is not meeting bidding requirements.
However, in a separate contract, county administrators recommended that Moore, the exact same bidder it said was unqualified in the other two contracts, receive the award. Administrators abruptly pulled that item before the Dec. 3 county board meeting, but not before some commissioners noticed the inconsistency and began asking questions.
I'm all for prevailing wage and minority- and women-owned business requirements for county bidding, properly supervised (Cf., "Remedial Environmental Manpower") -- but if President Stroger truly wants to represent a "new generation" of leadership for the county, he needs to make a concerted, sincere effort to stop the last generation's practices.
You can add Toni Preckwinkle to the list of Democrats who want to end the Stroger dynasty. Preckwinkle would likely join Commissioner Forrest Claypool to make this at least a three-way primary. Sam Cholke at the Hyde Park Herald has the scoop.
I suspect that the County Democratic Party recognizes the liability the Stroger administration has become. It will be interesting to see how the County party aligns on this race. It will also be interesting to see how the Mayor plays it; obviously the Daleys and Strogers go way back and presumably the Mayor's considerable resources (not to mention his brother's, who runs the County's finance committee) would be devoted to Stroger or at least stay neutral, particularly considering his past relationship with Claypool (not that that turned out to be particularly helpful in 2006). Still, the city is on an all-out offensive for the Olympics, and having a friendly, predictable alderman in the 4th Ward must be awful tempting.
Hat tip to Josh's coverage at Progress Illinois on the report in Crain's that 4th Ward (Hyde Park, Kenwood) Alderman Toni Preckwinkle is going to challenge Todd Stroger for the Cook County Board Presidency in the Democratic Primary in 2010.
Hmm. This is curious, no? Forrest Claypool says he will make a decision this summer, but I would put the odds at ten to one that he runs. Certainly the fact that he has engaged the President in public debate recently would tend to indicate that. A three-way primary between these guys would have an interesting dynamic. Preckwinkle appeals to lakefront liberal types, representing as she does the uber-liberal Hyde Park, and also good government types all over the city. She also has deep ties to the black community, though obviously the Stroger name is an institution for vast parts of the black neighborhoods of the South Side in particular. Preckwinkle, were she to receive any level of organizational support -- or if, say, Stroger were to lose his -- could pull from enough constituencies to eke out a victory in the primary.
To put it mildly, Todd Stroger has had a disappointing tenure. We may grant the assertion that that's because he's been manhandled by the local editorial boards, but given his controversial ascension to the seat and the suspicion that comes with nepotism, he should have gone to great pains to be transparent and efficient. Stroger's candidacy threatens the Democratic Party's control of Cook County government, which over time could wear away at its resurgence in the suburbs and subsequent domination of statewide office, too. That is certainly on the mind of people like our mayor and many of the more active ward organizations.
But why is Preckwinkle looking to leave the 4th Ward just as the Olympic Games threaten to tear the community apart? Why, just when the ward would need a strong voice to defend its community and extract assurances from the Mayor, is she pursuing a different set of priorities?
Of course, if she wins, her seat would be filled by mayoral fiat. Mayor Daley would handpick the alderman representing the community most threatened by the Olympic hurricane.
When the GOP lost any real influence over the patronage-heavy Cook County Board, it became a necessity for them to hold on to political power in the suburbs that ring the edge of the County if they wanted to stay at a fighting weight statewide. Beginning with the fall of George Ryan, though, their grip on the suburbs has weakened, allowing Democratic candidates to swamp them with votes from the city and inner-ring suburbs.
With the growing unpopularity of the Stroger administration and this vague scandal involving the Governor's office (maybe you heard about it), the GOP is regrouping to take a run at asserting themselves at the county level in Cook. Building a voter base in Cook County could be the key to revitalizing the party statewide. CBS political correspondent Mike Flannery has the scoop:
In just 10 months from now, Republican State Sen. Matt Murphy says he will likely file nominating petitions to run against Democrat Todd Stroger for Cook County Board president. An FBI raid and ongoing investigation at the County Building that may soon produce new criminal charges would be one centerpiece of Murphy's campaign.
Last week we followed up on County Commissioner Forrest Claypool's claim that the County could sustain services and spending without the heavy borrowing Board President Todd Stroger said would be necessary.
Without the bond issues, nearly half of which would be used for operating expenses, "there's an instant effect that will be felt by people," Stroger countered. "You are going to see something major happen. Court cases will last long. You won't be able to hire a state's attorney or public defenders. The hospital won't be able to hire the doctors and nurses that they need."
Last week County Commissioner Forrest Claypool's office released a memo arguing that Cook County was looking at a significant operating surplus, and that therefore borrowing money for several classes of county expenses, as Stroger has proposed to do a lot of, will only saddle future budgets with considerable debt service. Claypool asserted that the borrowing was unnecessary and dangerous, so we pressed his office for details on what alternative the County had.
Claypool Chief of Staff Doug Kucia spoke to me about Claypool's assertion that borrowing was unnecessary, and that the money from the operating surplus could be used to cover the FY2009 budget shortfalls.
"We've gotten two -- now three -- sets of numbers. We've had to try to make sense of the numbers," Kucia told GB. "The [sales tax] projections they have suggest the downturn will be much much worse. The economy is in trouble, but we're not standing in soup lines." Kucia is referring to the fact that Stroger's budget team has projected an apocalyptic decline in sales tax revenue due to the sagging retail economy. He's not alone in doubting the Stroger figures; speaking to Progess Illinois, Commissioner Larry Suffredin called the President's budget numbers "a political document rather than an accounting document." Claypool's memo claims that the downturn projected by Stroger's office would be the first of its size since the Depression days of the early 1930s.
While typically, conservative estimates of things like sales tax -- particularly in the midst of a serious recession -- are a good idea, the enormous decline Stroger is predicting doesn't seem to be based on anything but a guess.
Claypool uses as his baseline Illinois state Comptroller Dan Hynes' figure for expected sales tax decline -- a modest 1.4%. Compare this to President Stroger's latest estimate, released Dec. 15, of nearly 23%. Given the state generally collects sales taxes, and Comptroller Hynes' sterling reputation as a civil servant, Kucia told me, Claypool feels comfortable using his numbers.
"Even if the one point four is too low, and it went as high as six, that's still not even close," to President Stroger's numbers.
Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, issued a relatively positive report about the county's credit situation in July, despite revising its Rating Outlook on the county from Stable to Negative, saying:
The Outlook revision to Negative reflects financial weakening, an increasingly high-tax environment for retail sales in a down economy,and the need for structural reform within the county's massive health system, where widening operating losses require an increasing amount of operating fund subsidy. Along with the steps the county has already taken to reform billing and administration of its health care system,expenditure savings and enhanced patient fee recovery will be necessary to curtail rising operating deficits. With the highest sales tax rate in the nation, the county faces political and economic pressure to provide tax relief for county residents. The long-term sustainability of fiscal decisions, and the charge for structural reform and revenue enhancement, will be key future challenges....The county's strong economic growth has reduced the relative dependence on residential property taxes and modestly increased the county's financial flexibility.
Note that the revision downward was based at least in part on the recent sales tax increase. (For an explanation of Fitch's ratings, see here.)
Bonds issued to pay for operating expenses such as "Self Insurance" (legal fees and payouts, etc.) and pension obligations are taxable, whereas capital bonds are not. Issuing the taxable bonds along with the tax-exempt bonds could lead, according to Claypool, to as much $55m a year in debt service, a serious built-in burden for an annually tight budget.
When pressed as to why Stroger's office would create such a dire forecast for sales tax revenue, Kucia declined to speculate.
One possible explanation is that publicly dedicating surplus sales tax revenue to self insurance or pension costs pins the administration down, reducing flexibility in more discretionary spending. Whatever the reason, the Board has an obligation to Cook County residents -- who are, we should remember, the actual "borrowers" whenever the County issues debt -- to err on the side of less borrowing particularly when it comes to operating expenses.
Between the striking workers, the impeachment-ripe governor, and the CPS honcho being named President-elect Obama's Education Secretary, the news that Cook County intends to borrow millions in order to finance daily operations has sort of clung on to the end of news broadcasts and under newspaper folds -- but it's not nothing. Borrowing money -- in this case, $360m or so -- to pay for operating expenses is typically a terrible idea, but worse, when it's necessary it means you're in serious trouble.
Consider if you were forced to use a credit card to pay for your El rides, your lunch at work, your dinner, and your bills. The mere fact of your existence is pushing you further into debt. What can you do? You can either shrink your expenses or find new streams of income.
The Cook County Board passed a 1 percent sales tax increase earlier this year, making Cook County among the most expensive counties in the country -- so there's your new income stream. But that increase apparently wasn't enough, and Board President Todd Stroger is painting a dire picture of what will happen if we don't borrow this enormous sum: basic operations will cease. (Some of you may be wondering, "What exactly does the County do anyway?" They do stuff, trust me.)
Reform-minded Commissioner and regular Stroger gadfly Forrest Claypool, who represents much of the city's north side, sprang out of his seat and into the local press howling about the borrowing and how it represented not only terrible public policy (probably true) but also indicated the basic mismanagement by an administration that passes gigantic tax increases and then has to borrow money (definitely true). Let's also not forget that the first two budgets Stroger issued were filled with basic accounting errors. But what is Claypool's solution? According to the Chicago Tribune,
Commissioner Forrest Claypool (D-Chicago), a Stroger foe, contends the budget can be balanced and services maintained at current levels without borrowing.
